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By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Water Science and Technology Board, Committee on Hydrologic Science

File from the Committee on Hydrologic technological know-how, Water and expertise Board, and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and weather. Softcover.

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Extra info for Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

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In this case, chaotic atmospheric dynamics overwhelm any control on precipitation imposed by the boundary conditions. The left plot shows this “robustness” index over North America, as computed from boreal summer data (JJA) from Ensemble 1. Notice that foreknowledge of SSTs contributes to the predictability of precipitation only in the tropical areas. The right plot shows this index as computed from Ensemble 2. Foreknowledge of land surface moisture conditions leads to enhanced predictability over a significant part of midlatitude North America.

The purpose of this section, however, is to focus on one of the predictability problems in hydrologic science—hydrometeorology—and in the process identify those structural issues that are common to diverse hydrologic science applications. During the past century, many anomalous climate events 15 16 Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction Box 3-1 From Research to Operations Considerable operational and regulatory hydrology is based on predictive model output. Hydrologic models are essential tools used to characterize the benefits and costs of proposed private and public actions.

M. S. m. m. NRC Committee on Hydrologic Science meets to review workshop Appendix B Selected Papers Presented at Workshop on Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction In Hydrologic Systems PREDICTABILITY OF REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH TERRESTRIAL COUPLING Randy Koster NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Seasonal Prediction: Recent Results From NSIPP Seasonal prediction of meteorological conditions cannot rely on the initialization and modeling of the atmosphere alone, since the timescales over which atmospheric anomalies dissipate are much too short.

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