By national council on radiation
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Extra info for Information Needed to Make Radiation Protection Recommendations for Space Missions Beyond Low-Earth Orbit
For missions to Mars, there is a critical need to be able to accurately forecast solar events likely to accelerate and release a large fluence rate of solar particles onto the interplanetary magnetic field lines connected to the spacecraft position. During the interplanetary transit phase of such a mission, it will be necessary to forecast the probability of a fast CME in the next N hours or days and to reliably predict the SPE’s characteristics at the position of the spacecraft, specifically the fluence rate, fluence, composition, spectra, and time evolution.
SPACE RADIATION ENVIRONMENT forecast capability is inadequate for manned interplanetary missions. Essentially, the forecast centers operate in a reaction mode where there is some skill in forecasting SPEs that will affect Earth after the occurrence of a significant event on the sun that has the characteristics of solar-proton generating activity. It is reasonable to assume that Earth-based solar monitoring network will support a Mars mission with SPE forecasts and alerts. However, there are substantial limitations.
This concept is often referred to as the favorable propagation path. The highest particle fluence-rate intensities are often observed along this favorable propagation path with lower fluence rates usually observed at heliocentric angular distances away from the favorable propagation path. The particle fluence-rate longitudinal gradients in the inner heliosphere are variable, and local interplanetary conditions and structures greatly influence the time-intensity profiles observed. The average heliolongitudinal gradient of particle fluence rate is difficult to determine.