By Ethel Sara Wolper
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Climate options for the long term”, 2003; Åkerman, J. and Höjer, M. , 2006. 6 Similar versions of backcasting have been described in Dreborg (2004) and Höjer, M. and Mattsson, L. G. “Determinism and backcasting in futures studies”, 2000. 1 Backcasting 13 The first step is to establish criteria and goals. In this study we choose criteria for sustainable resource use, as we mean that these are basic components in the sustainability concept and own a more absolute character than those criteria that can be formulated regarding social and economic development.
The one used here can be named target-oriented backcasting. 6 Höjer, M. What is the point of IT? 2000a and Dreborg, K. H. Scenarios and structural uncertainty, 2004. 4 Johansson, T. B. et al. “Sweden beyond oil: the efficient use of energy”, 1983; Kaijser, A. et al. Changing direction: energy policy and new technology, 1991; Lönnroth, M. et al. Solar versus nuclear, 1980; Robinson, J. B. “Energy backcasting”, 1982 and Steen, P. et al. ), 1981. 5 På väg mot ett miljöanpassat transportsystem (Towards an environmentally adapted transport system), 1996; Transport and environment, 1999; Steen, P.
W. Norton, New York Nilsson L (1989) Den urbana transitionen: tätorterna i svensk samhällsomvandling 1800–1980. Stadshistoriska institutet, Stockholm Soya E (2000) Postmetropolis: critical studies of cities and regions. 1 Backcasting There are three basically different categories of future studies, each answering different types of questions. 1 It is the last category that informs this book, the type of futures study that has specific goals to strive for. In some cases these goals can be fulfilled simply by making the right decision or if the existing development pattern continues on the road taken.