By Paul Collier, V. L Elliott, Havard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, Nicholas Sambanis
Civil wars allure less realization than foreign wars yet they're changing into more and more universal and usually cross on for years. the place improvement succeeds, international locations turn into steadily more secure from violent clash, making next improvement more uncomplicated. the place improvement fails international locations can turn into trapped in a vicious circle: warfare wrecks the economic system and raises the chance of extra warfare. This new international financial institution coverage learn document demanding situations the assumption that civil wars are inevitable and proposes an time table for international motion.
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Additional resources for Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (World Bank Policy Research Reports)
A catalyst for beneficial change, civil war typically leaves a persisting legacy of poverty and misery. Economic and Political Legacy Several of the adverse economic effects of civil war are highly persistent. 0 percent; however, once the war has ended, military expenditure does not return to its former level. 5 percent of GDP on the military. The government often presents the modest reduction in military spending from its wartime level as a peace dividend, but a more accurate way of viewing postconflict military spending is to see it 20 C I V I L WA R A S D E V E L O P M E N T I N R E V E R S E as a major hidden cost of conflict, hidden because abnormally inflated military spending persists long after the conflict is over.
S. dollars 3,000 Before civil war After civil war 2,000 1,000 0 Peru El Salvador Nicaragua Angola Dem. Rep. of Congo Burundi Source: Sambanis (2003). 8 percent of GDP on the military. During civil war, on average, this increases to 5 percent. This is likely to cause a decrease in other public expenditures such as those on infrastructure and health. The decrease in the supply of such public goods has consequences for incomes and social indicators, and here we focus on the effects on income. Before taking any of the destructive effects of military activity into account, we can estimate its consequences for crowding out productive expenditures.
This is partly because war leaves the society divided and embittered, and partly because war creates interests that favor continued violence and criminality. As a result, people’s fears of a relapse into further conflict may dominate the postconflict economic landscape. 22 C I V I L WA R A S D E V E L O P M E N T I N R E V E R S E The overall economic and political legacy from civil war is thus sufficiently adverse that rapid recovery is unlikely. Collier (1999) finds some evidence for a war overhang effect, whereby after short wars the economy continues to have exceptionally low growth.